目的 分析2003-2022年上海市护理人力资源配置状况，提出2023-2027年上海市护理人员的数量预测值，为上海市护理人力资源的合理配置提供参考。方法 基于《上海统计年鉴》数据，描述性分析2003-2022年上海市护理人力资源配置现状，采用灰色模型(grey model,GM) (1,1) 对上海市未来护理人员的需求和规模进行预测分析。结果 2003-2022年上海市注册护士数量平稳增长，护理人力资源配置不断改善，但与目标要求相比仍存在提升空间。GM (1,1) 经检验显示,后验差比值（C）均≤0.35，小误差概率（P）均为1，显示出高预测精度和良好拟合效果。预测结果显示，到2027年，上海市注册护士数预计为155 866人，上海市每千人口注册护士数预计为5.67人，卫生技术人员中注册护士占比约为0.50，医护比预计为1∶1.43，床护比预计为1∶0.79,基层机构注册护士为38 847人。结论 上海市注册护士总量将继续保持增长，护理人力资源不断改善。医疗卫生主管部门应进一步优化上海市护理人力资源配置，平衡护理人力资源的配置，进一步丰富护理人员结构并充分发挥应用价值，推进护理人力资源配置政策的落实。

Objective To analyze the allocation status of nursing workforce in Shanghai from 2003 to 2022,and to project the demand and scale of nursing staff from 2023 to 2027,providing references for the rational allocation of nursing workforce in Shanghai.Methods Based on the data from Shanghai Statistical Yearbook,the descriptive analysis was conducted to exam the current status of nursing workforce allocation in Shanghai from 2003 to 2022.The Grey Model (GM) (1,1) was used to analyze the future demand and scale of nursing personnel in Shanghai.Results From 2003 to 2022,the number of registered nurses in Shanghai showed steady growth,with continuous improvements in the allocation of nursing workforce.However,gaps remained compared to target requirements.The GM (1,1), after validation, showed that the posterior difference ratio (C) was ≤0.35 and the small error probability (P) was 1 in all cases, indicating high prediction accuracy and good fitting effect.The forecast results showed that by 2027,the number of registered nurses in Shanghai was expected to reach 155866,with an estimated 5.67 registered nurses per 1000 population.The proportion of registered nurses among health technicians would be about 0.50.The nurse-to-physician ratio would be 1∶1.43 and the nurse-to-bed ratio 1∶0.79.There would be 38847 registered nurses in primary healthcare institutions.Conclusions The total number of registered nurses in Shanghai will continue to grow,with ongoing optimization of nursing workforce. Healthcare authorities should further optimize the allocation of nursing workforce in Shanghai, balance the distribution of nursing workforce, enrich the structure of nursing personnel, and fully utilize their value to promote the implementation of policies on the allocation of nursing workforce.

R47-05;R823

上海市卫生健康委员会2024年卫生健康政策研究课题（定向委托）（2024HP50）